01
Why Story Points Don't Work
An estimate that cannot be falsified cannot become accurate, so story points create the appearance of measurement without a learning loop.
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02
Betting on Things That Never Change
Strategy is often stronger when it is built around durable human constants rather than predictions about which changes will win.
03
The Three Sides of Risk
Risk has a probability, an average consequence, and a tail consequence, and the tail is often what determines the historical outcome.